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Good morning, and welcome to our live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets.
","elementId":"6bb6730d-ed65-437e-9d8a-7e7d161d16ee"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
The number of job vacancies in the UK has fallen for the first time in two years, while ‘real’ pay – adjusted for inflation – fell by a record 3% in the quarter to June as the cost of living crisis deepened.
","elementId":"bbe2c1d2-4d1c-4d9e-9fce-d90b7ddc5406"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed average total pay, including bonuses, grew by 5.1% between April and June while regular pay excluding bonuses grew by 4.7%.
","elementId":"61156d94-62ce-4975-913f-c043582443cf"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
However, when adjusted for inflation (which reached a 40-year high of 9.4% in June), total pay fell 2.5% and regular pay fell by 3%, the fastest decline since comparable records began in 2001.
","elementId":"aa8b2189-b5ad-4253-abaa-3fabe9f764e9"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
The unemployment rate in the quarter rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8%, still close to the lowest levels since the 1970s.
","elementId":"6862e020-340c-4b6a-8f29-4947cdc891c6"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
But in a sign that hiring demand is starting to slow, the number of job vacancies fell by 19,800 to 1.274m, the first quarterly decline since the June to August period in 2020. Since vacancies fell to an all-time low in April to June 2020, they have increased by 945,000 in a little over two years, the ONS said.
","elementId":"984958c9-172c-403c-bf44-f5c1d35cdf65"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
Employment rose 73,000 in July to a record 29.7 million people, while the employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 dipped by 0.1 percentage points to 75.5% in the quarter to June.
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The economic inactivity rate was unchanged on the quarter at 21.4%. The increase in economic inactivity since the start of the coronavirus pandemic had been largely driven by those who were students and the long-term sick, the ONS said. In the latest three-month period, there was an increase in the number of people who were economically inactive owing to long-term sickness, which was largely offset by a decrease in those economically inactive for “other” reasons.
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Headline indicators for the UK labour market for April to June 2022 show that
▪️ employment was 75.5%
▪️ unemployment was 3.8%
▪️ economic inactivity was 21.4%➡️ https://t.co/NCz8Ddywix pic.twitter.com/3F3O5XhFnh
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) August 16, 2022
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The chancellor of the exchequer, Nadhim Zahawi said:
","elementId":"f34a063e-8432-4f34-a07f-2bf779245d40"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"
\n
Today’s stats demonstrate that the jobs market is in a strong position, with unemployment lower than at almost any point in the past 40 years – good news in what I know are difficult times for people. This highlights the resilience of the UK economy and the fantastic businesses who are creating new jobs across the country.
\n
Although there are no easy solutions to the cost of living pressures people are facing, we are providing help where we can. We are delivering a £37bn package of help for households through cash grants and tax cuts so people can keep more of what they earn.
\n
And whilst we cannot completely shield everyone from these global economic shocks, we are targeting this support on millions of the most vulnerable people in our society: those on the lowest incomes, pensioners and disabled people.
\n
","elementId":"a65792b5-73b8-4d2a-a7bc-8fa6af1cb0c5"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"
Commenting on today’s labour market data, ONS director of economic statistics, Darren Morgan said: (1/4)
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) August 16, 2022
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The ONS director of economic statistics, Darren Morgan, added:
","elementId":"dbe5386c-0a37-4386-a940-e1c174a232f7"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"
\n
Meanwhile, the total number of hours worked each week appears to have stabilised very slightly below pre-pandemic levels.
\n
","elementId":"1d4de263-9f53-4d58-b0bc-a40db74ef730"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
Crude oil prices are down again this morning after falling as much as 5% on Monday, as bleak economic data from China, the world’s biggest crude buyer, revived fears of a global recession.
","elementId":"e0a4ada8-9c0a-4e8d-83d4-fa2a1116b6f8"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
Brent crude has lost 1% to $94.15 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate, the North American benchmark, dipped 0.76% to $88.73.
","elementId":"fca6e54b-1f48-4723-8ec8-88fcf0f494b9"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
China’s central bank cut lending rates in a surprise move on Monday to revive demand after the economy slowed unexpectedly in July, with factory output and retail sales squeezed by Beijing’s strict zero-Covid policy.
","elementId":"e9e40481-41d9-4d03-a3f0-9a5e12cf362a"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said the Saudi state oil company
","elementId":"6f772bc8-9fac-47ee-bc4c-0b09eed99b9d"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"
\n
Aramco said on Sunday that they could raise their output to the maximum capacity of 12m barrels per day, if the Saudi government orders to.
\n
And the growing prospect of Iranian oil is playing in favour of the downside, as the latest news revealed that Iran responded to the EU’s proposal for reviving the 2015 nuclear deal between the US and Iran, and European politicians now push the US to adopt a’ realistic approach and flexibility’ to resolve the couple of remaining issues. A nuclear deal between the US and Iran should unlock up to 4m barrels of Iranian oil per day and help easing the supply crisis.
\n
","elementId":"902562e2-5b6b-4e57-915a-5ac7778c1c0e"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
The Agenda
","elementId":"c69c862d-0556-4fc9-947f-02da3d0e7154"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
- \n
-
10am BST: Eurozone and Germany ZEW economic sentiment survey for August
-
1.30pm BST: Canada inflation for July (forecast: 7.6%)
-
2.15pm BST: US Industrial production for July
\n
\n
\n
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Key events
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Good morning, and welcome to our live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets.
","elementId":"6bb6730d-ed65-437e-9d8a-7e7d161d16ee"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
The number of job vacancies in the UK has fallen for the first time in two years, while ‘real’ pay – adjusted for inflation – fell by a record 3% in the quarter to June as the cost of living crisis deepened.
","elementId":"bbe2c1d2-4d1c-4d9e-9fce-d90b7ddc5406"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed average total pay, including bonuses, grew by 5.1% between April and June while regular pay excluding bonuses grew by 4.7%.
","elementId":"61156d94-62ce-4975-913f-c043582443cf"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
However, when adjusted for inflation (which reached a 40-year high of 9.4% in June), total pay fell 2.5% and regular pay fell by 3%, the fastest decline since comparable records began in 2001.
","elementId":"aa8b2189-b5ad-4253-abaa-3fabe9f764e9"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
The unemployment rate in the quarter rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8%, still close to the lowest levels since the 1970s.
","elementId":"6862e020-340c-4b6a-8f29-4947cdc891c6"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
But in a sign that hiring demand is starting to slow, the number of job vacancies fell by 19,800 to 1.274m, the first quarterly decline since the June to August period in 2020. Since vacancies fell to an all-time low in April to June 2020, they have increased by 945,000 in a little over two years, the ONS said.
","elementId":"984958c9-172c-403c-bf44-f5c1d35cdf65"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
Employment rose 73,000 in July to a record 29.7 million people, while the employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 dipped by 0.1 percentage points to 75.5% in the quarter to June.
","elementId":"3b5d18bb-c6ea-4fcc-bae3-4e29c37f8616"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
The economic inactivity rate was unchanged on the quarter at 21.4%. The increase in economic inactivity since the start of the coronavirus pandemic had been largely driven by those who were students and the long-term sick, the ONS said. In the latest three-month period, there was an increase in the number of people who were economically inactive owing to long-term sickness, which was largely offset by a decrease in those economically inactive for “other” reasons.
","elementId":"7abf68e9-1063-4d61-8a88-5865bd068007"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"
Headline indicators for the UK labour market for April to June 2022 show that
▪️ employment was 75.5%
▪️ unemployment was 3.8%
▪️ economic inactivity was 21.4%➡️ https://t.co/NCz8Ddywix pic.twitter.com/3F3O5XhFnh
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) August 16, 2022
\n","url":"https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1559420039404687360","id":"1559420039404687360","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"5990f264-648f-4011-b521-8e83ab2e87d9"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
The chancellor of the exchequer, Nadhim Zahawi said:
","elementId":"f34a063e-8432-4f34-a07f-2bf779245d40"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"
\n
Today’s stats demonstrate that the jobs market is in a strong position, with unemployment lower than at almost any point in the past 40 years – good news in what I know are difficult times for people. This highlights the resilience of the UK economy and the fantastic businesses who are creating new jobs across the country.
\n
Although there are no easy solutions to the cost of living pressures people are facing, we are providing help where we can. We are delivering a £37bn package of help for households through cash grants and tax cuts so people can keep more of what they earn.
\n
And whilst we cannot completely shield everyone from these global economic shocks, we are targeting this support on millions of the most vulnerable people in our society: those on the lowest incomes, pensioners and disabled people.
\n
","elementId":"a65792b5-73b8-4d2a-a7bc-8fa6af1cb0c5"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"
Commenting on today’s labour market data, ONS director of economic statistics, Darren Morgan said: (1/4)
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) August 16, 2022
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The ONS director of economic statistics, Darren Morgan, added:
","elementId":"dbe5386c-0a37-4386-a940-e1c174a232f7"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"
\n
Meanwhile, the total number of hours worked each week appears to have stabilised very slightly below pre-pandemic levels.
\n
","elementId":"1d4de263-9f53-4d58-b0bc-a40db74ef730"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
Crude oil prices are down again this morning after falling as much as 5% on Monday, as bleak economic data from China, the world’s biggest crude buyer, revived fears of a global recession.
","elementId":"e0a4ada8-9c0a-4e8d-83d4-fa2a1116b6f8"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
Brent crude has lost 1% to $94.15 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate, the North American benchmark, dipped 0.76% to $88.73.
","elementId":"fca6e54b-1f48-4723-8ec8-88fcf0f494b9"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
China’s central bank cut lending rates in a surprise move on Monday to revive demand after the economy slowed unexpectedly in July, with factory output and retail sales squeezed by Beijing’s strict zero-Covid policy.
","elementId":"e9e40481-41d9-4d03-a3f0-9a5e12cf362a"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said the Saudi state oil company
","elementId":"6f772bc8-9fac-47ee-bc4c-0b09eed99b9d"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"
\n
Aramco said on Sunday that they could raise their output to the maximum capacity of 12m barrels per day, if the Saudi government orders to.
\n
And the growing prospect of Iranian oil is playing in favour of the downside, as the latest news revealed that Iran responded to the EU’s proposal for reviving the 2015 nuclear deal between the US and Iran, and European politicians now push the US to adopt a’ realistic approach and flexibility’ to resolve the couple of remaining issues. A nuclear deal between the US and Iran should unlock up to 4m barrels of Iranian oil per day and help easing the supply crisis.
\n
","elementId":"902562e2-5b6b-4e57-915a-5ac7778c1c0e"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
The Agenda
","elementId":"c69c862d-0556-4fc9-947f-02da3d0e7154"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
- \n
-
10am BST: Eurozone and Germany ZEW economic sentiment survey for August
-
1.30pm BST: Canada inflation for July (forecast: 7.6%)
-
2.15pm BST: US Industrial production for July
\n
\n
\n
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Filters BETA
Some economists say that the chances of another half-point interest rate hike from the Bank of England in September have gone up following the jump in nominal wage growth, i.e. stripping out the effect of inflation.
Thomas Pugh, economist at audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK, said:
The leap in regular pay growth to 4.7% in June, which is miles above the 3%-3.5% that’s consistent with the 2% inflation target, significantly raises the chances that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will go for a second 50 basis point rise in interest rates in September.
Admittedly, total wage growth fell from 6.4% year-on-year in the three months to May to 5.1% y/y in June as bonus payments growth dropped to 10.4%. But bonus payments have been volatile lately and the MPC prefers to look at underlying pay growth, which rose strongly. Indeed, pay growth rose rapidly in every industry except for the public sector.
Add in employment growth of 160,000 and it paints a picture of a very tight labour market. Combine this with soaring inflation, which is likely to have reached almost 10% in July, and we think a 50bps hike next month is now more likely than not.
There is evidence that the labour market has begun to cool, he noted.
The number of job vacancies dropped by 19,800 in July, the first quarterly fall since June to August 2020. Indeed, much softer economic growth in the second half of the year, due to the cost-of-living crisis, will dampen demand for labour and ease some of the tightness in the labour market. However, we think the smaller pool of available workers will keep the labour market tight for at least the next couple of years.
The tightness in the labour market was reflected in strong nominal pay growth. However, real total pay growth, which takes inflation into account, fell by 2.5%, suggesting that the cost-of-living crisis took a bigger toll in June. Real wages are likely to fall by around 3% in 2022, which would be the deepest squeeze on spending power on record.
Ben Harrison, director of the Work Foundation at Lancaster University, a think tank for improving work in the UK, said:
Ahead of next week’s energy price cap announcement, there is more bad news for workers as real wages fell by a record 3% on the year. With inflation at 9.4%, and the Bank of England predicting it will peak at 13% in early 2024, people across the UK are facing more tough decisions as their regular pay fails to keep pace with rising prices.
The six million workers in severely insecure jobs will be hardest hit and are already running out of options. Many have already tried to find more hours work and cutback spending but continue to face great uncertainty.
With fuel bills about to soar again, hardworking families cannot wait any longer. The prime minister must return from holiday and agree a comprehensive package of support with the two Conservative leadership candidates.
The Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney called on the government to freeze energy bills this winter (the average annual household bill is forecast to rise above £4,200 in January).
Families are being hammered by a cost of living catastrophe and yet the government is nowhere to be found.
This Zombie government has no plan and is failing our country. People can’t wait any longer for the Conservatives to play out their horror show leadership contest.
Liberal Democrats are calling for energy bills to be frozen this winter and for Parliament to be recalled to put these plans into law.
Labour was quick to respond. Jonathan Ashworth, shadow work and pensions secretary, said:
Today we see yet another record fall in real wages, and further proof that the Tories have lost control of the economy.
Because of the Tories’ failure on the economy, families face plummeting real wages and soaring energy bills. Yet, this Zombie government is offering no solutions to the cost of living crisis.
Labour will help build a secure economy and we will freeze energy bills so that people don’t pay a penny more this winter.
Introduction: UK real pay falls by record 3%, as job vacancies also decline – business live
Good morning, and welcome to our live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets.
The number of job vacancies in the UK has fallen for the first time in two years, while ‘real’ pay – adjusted for inflation – fell by a record 3% in the quarter to June as the cost of living crisis deepened.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed average total pay, including bonuses, grew by 5.1% between April and June while regular pay excluding bonuses grew by 4.7%.
However, when adjusted for inflation (which reached a 40-year high of 9.4% in June), total pay fell 2.5% and regular pay fell by 3%, the fastest decline since comparable records began in 2001.
The unemployment rate in the quarter rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8%, still close to the lowest levels since the 1970s.
But in a sign that hiring demand is starting to slow, the number of job vacancies fell by 19,800 to 1.274m, the first quarterly decline since the June to August period in 2020. Since vacancies fell to an all-time low in April to June 2020, they have increased by 945,000 in a little over two years, the ONS said.
Employment rose 73,000 in July to a record 29.7 million people, while the employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 dipped by 0.1 percentage points to 75.5% in the quarter to June.
The economic inactivity rate was unchanged on the quarter at 21.4%. The increase in economic inactivity since the start of the coronavirus pandemic had been largely driven by those who were students and the long-term sick, the ONS said. In the latest three-month period, there was an increase in the number of people who were economically inactive owing to long-term sickness, which was largely offset by a decrease in those economically inactive for “other” reasons.
Headline indicators for the UK labour market for April to June 2022 show that
▪️ employment was 75.5%
▪️ unemployment was 3.8%
▪️ economic inactivity was 21.4%➡️ https://t.co/NCz8Ddywix pic.twitter.com/3F3O5XhFnh
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) August 16, 2022
\n","url":"https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1559420039404687360","id":"1559420039404687360","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"a57a24e3-3bbf-40ef-98c2-624fa05533d1"}}”>
The chancellor of the exchequer, Nadhim Zahawi said:
Today’s stats demonstrate that the jobs market is in a strong position, with unemployment lower than at almost any point in the past 40 years – good news in what I know are difficult times for people. This highlights the resilience of the UK economy and the fantastic businesses who are creating new jobs across the country.
Although there are no easy solutions to the cost of living pressures people are facing, we are providing help where we can. We are delivering a £37bn package of help for households through cash grants and tax cuts so people can keep more of what they earn.
And whilst we cannot completely shield everyone from these global economic shocks, we are targeting this support on millions of the most vulnerable people in our society: those on the lowest incomes, pensioners and disabled people.
Commenting on today’s labour market data, ONS director of economic statistics, Darren Morgan said: (1/4)
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) August 16, 2022
\n","url":"https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1559420299459928073","id":"1559420299459928073","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"67c64426-8434-4cb1-bae9-6d5ba1939f53"}}”>
The ONS director of economic statistics, Darren Morgan, added:
Meanwhile, the total number of hours worked each week appears to have stabilised very slightly below pre-pandemic levels.
Crude oil prices are down again this morning after falling as much as 5% on Monday, as bleak economic data from China, the world’s biggest crude buyer, revived fears of a global recession.
Brent crude has lost 1% to $94.15 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate, the North American benchmark, dipped 0.76% to $88.73.
China’s central bank cut lending rates in a surprise move on Monday to revive demand after the economy slowed unexpectedly in July, with factory output and retail sales squeezed by Beijing’s strict zero-Covid policy.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said the Saudi state oil company
Aramco said on Sunday that they could raise their output to the maximum capacity of 12m barrels per day, if the Saudi government orders to.
And the growing prospect of Iranian oil is playing in favour of the downside, as the latest news revealed that Iran responded to the EU’s proposal for reviving the 2015 nuclear deal between the US and Iran, and European politicians now push the US to adopt a’ realistic approach and flexibility’ to resolve the couple of remaining issues. A nuclear deal between the US and Iran should unlock up to 4m barrels of Iranian oil per day and help easing the supply crisis.
The Agenda
-
10am BST: Eurozone and Germany ZEW economic sentiment survey for August
-
1.30pm BST: Canada inflation for July (forecast: 7.6%)
-
2.15pm BST: US Industrial production for July
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