A UK deal to harmonise veterinary standards with the EU could boost British agrifood exports to Europe by more than 22 per cent, according to researchers.
The estimate, published in a joint paper from Aston University and the University of Bristol, is based on an analysis of 279 previous trade agreements and export statistics from more than 200 countries. The study predicted imports from the EU would also increase by 5.6 per cent if there was a deal.
The opposition Labour party, which polls suggest is on track to win power in the general election expected this year, has committed to signing a new veterinary agreement with Brussels as part of its plans to improve post-Brexit trading arrangements with the EU.
Jun Du, professor of economics at Aston University, said that because the UK was previously aligned with EU standards and had not diverged significantly since Brexit, it was likely to feel the benefits of a veterinary deal faster than was normal.
“Until recently, the UK had frictionless agrifood exports to the EU, so it’s possible that a supplementary veterinary agreement to reduce some of the frictions created by Brexit could allow trade that previously existed to pick up again quite quickly,” she said.
John Springford, associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said that if the full 22.5 per cent boost to exports was realised, it would translate to an increase of about £2bn in UK agrifood exports to the EU, based on 2023 food exports of £8.6bn to the bloc.
“That’s not nothing, and would be helpful to British food producers, but it is a small boost when compared to total export volumes to the EU, which amounted to £150bn in 2023,” he added.
Since Britain left the EU, the UK food and drink industry has faced the full panoply of border checks on its exports to the bloc. The paper found this had contributed to a 5 per cent fall in exports to its largest trading partner between 2019 and 2022, a period when exports to the rest of the world were growing.
The food and drink sector employs a total of 4.2mn people in the UK, with global exports of food, feed and drink worth a total of £25bn in 2022, according to government statistics.
The ruling Conservative party has ruled out seeking a veterinary deal with the EU, arguing that the UK needs to remain independent of the bloc’s rules in order to strike trade deals with other countries and seize the benefits of regulatory divergence with Brussels.
Nick Thomas-Symonds, the shadow Cabinet Office minister who is expected to be put in charge of Labour’s promised re-engagement with Europe, confirmed his party would seek a veterinary agreement but would remain outside the EU single market and customs union.
“At a time when businesses and shoppers are being hit so hard by Tory economic chaos, Labour has said that we would work to improve the UK’s relationship with the EU to deliver for British people, including through seeking to negotiate a veterinary agreement,” he said.
Greg Messenger, a trade specialist at the University of Bristol and co-author of the paper, said it was assumed to be unlikely that a UK government would accept the kind of “dynamic” alignment seen with Switzerland’s agreement with Brussels, in which the Swiss largely followed all EU laws.
“As we wouldn’t expect to eliminate all paperwork, we could both agree that our rules meet each other’s standards for phytosanitary protection. As most of our rules are still essentially the same as the EU, that wouldn’t require any major change,” he said.
All the major UK trade groups, including the British Chambers of Commerce and the Food and Drink Federation, the food industry lobby group, have called on the government to seek an improved veterinary deal with the EU.
Balwinder Dhoot, director of growth at the FDF, said the group was interested in any discussion of a possible agreement, but warned that a deal would come with trade-offs that would require careful management.
“Negotiating this wouldn’t be easy and would require compromises as well as gains, which would need to be carefully worked through alongside industry,” he said.
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