Voters don’t care about Anthony Albanese’s broken promise – but now they expect much more from him

There is no sign the latest shift is driven by concerns about border protection, even though Dutton placed so much attention on this in parliament after the arrival of 39 asylum seekers two weeks ago. In fact, Labor recovered a small amount of support from voters on immigration in this latest survey.

More troubling for Albanese is the broader trend. Labor was seen as the better side to manage immigration and refugees a year ago, but things have changed. The Coalition has held a clear lead on this since the High Court decision in November overturning indefinite detention.

The argument that consumed parliament at the start of the year, when Albanese broke his election promise to keep the stage 3 tax cuts, has not changed the government’s overall fortunes. Voters generally support the cuts (with 52 per cent in favour) and this is even true of Coalition voters (with support from 53 per cent of them). This has not translated into a higher Labor primary vote.

It is too early to judge the full impact of the tax cut turnaround. The new tax package has given the government something to fight for and made the Coalition seem flat-footed. At the same time, it provides Albanese with an instant answer when asked about the cost of living, helping to blunt some of the Coalition attacks.

It does not, however, drive voters to Labor. Asked about the policy switch, 61 per cent of voters say it does not change their thinking about Albanese. Another 21 per cent say they like him less as a result of the decision, while 18 per cent say they like him more.

Asked if it was a broken promise, 34 per cent say yes. On the other hand, 46 per cent see it as changing policy to suit the times. It looks like Albanese is being heard when he says he had to adjust his plans to new circumstances.

Even so, there is a blow to the prime minister’s power to communicate with the community. That is because 36 per cent of voters say they will be less likely to believe what Albanese says in future. Another 53 per cent say it will make no difference, and 11 per cent say it makes them more likely to believe him.

Albanese is not leaving anything to chance at this Saturday’s byelection. He did two broadcast interviews on Sunday morning, three on Friday, three on Thursday, and five on Wednesday. He is “affable Albo” in these interviews, putting hours into his relationship with voters.

But there is no applause. Not yet, at least. Labor is hostage to the economy. It may need a strong budget in May, good news on inflation and a few interest rate cuts before anyone cheers.

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