Yankees’ Juan Soto Predicted to Sign $500-Plus Million Deal

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Outfielder Juan Soto is in line for a huge payday next winter. What will it take for the New York Yankees to retain their superstar?

Outfielder Juan Soto is preparing for his first season with the New York Yankees in 2024. But will it be his last? And if it is, which big-market team will pony up enough money to convince him to bolt from the Bronx?

Soto is set to make $31 million in New York this year. That number is a record for arbitration-eligible players, per the Associated Press. This probably won’t be the last time the left-handed slugger makes history in this area of the game.

The Athletic’s Tim Britton made contract predictions for some of baseball’s biggest stars on March 4. His prediction for Soto’s next contract came in at 14 years and $528 million before the 2023 season. He’s updated this prediction to 14 years and $540 million ahead of 2024. That would be the second-richest contract in MLB history. Only Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers would be more lucrative.

His reasoning for Soto potentially signing for this much money revolves around a specific valuation. Britton sees the first five years of the outfielder’s deal worth $50 million per season. That’s followed by $32 million per season for the final nine years.

Soto Already Making a Good Early Impression This Spring

There’s nothing quite like making a good first impression. Soto knows a thing or two about that. It doesn’t matter that New York’s Grapefruit League games don’t count toward anything right now — the outfielder is already mashing at the plate.

He began on February 25 with a monster home run to the opposite field that hit off the scoreboard for his first tater in pinstripes.

He’s racked up 11 plate appearances through four games so far this spring. That’s yielded a ridiculous .667/.727/1.889 line with three home runs and seven RBI. It’s worth noting that this production has come against inferior competition. Baseball-Reference ranks the quality of opposing pitchers Soto has faced at 7.1 out of a scale of 10. According to their system, this is the equivalent of Double-A pitching.

Having Double-A pitchers face a generational talent like Soto isn’t fair. While he should be producing like this against that type of competition, it’s noteworthy that he’s been mashing since the minute spring training games started. He looks locked in.

The Yankees Will Have Upper Hand in Upcoming Bidding War

An ideal situation for the Yankees would be to lock down Soto to a long-term extension before he hits free agency in November. That’s an unlikely scenario for the Scott Boras client. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman was well aware of that when he acquired the outfielder.

“Haven’t had any conversations regarding that,” Cashman said of a potential extension with Soto on December 7, via WFAN. “We understand he’s a free agent at the end of this term, but we understand it’s a possible short-term situation. But I know he’s going to make our team significantly better.”

However, the Yankees have the advantage of Soto being on their roster for the entire regular season (and the postseason, they hope). It’s an opportunity to show him all the good things about playing in New York and being a Yankee. Fellow slugger Aaron Judge knows that the better the Bombers perform in 2024, the better their chances are of retaining Soto.

Having a successful season could make a big difference once he becomes a free agent. There will be plenty of big-market teams interested in Soto, especially the New York Mets. A bidding war between both New York teams is already brewing under the surface. So, it’ll be interesting to see how badly each team fights for him when the time comes.

Matt Musico covers Major League Baseball for Heavy.com and has been writing about baseball for the past decade. He’s the creator of MLB Daily Dingers, and his work has been featured on numberFire, MLB Trade Rumors, Bleacher Report, Elite Sports NY, and Yahoo! Sports. More about Matt Musico