How results in Europe affect Man Utd, Tottenham and Aston Villa’s Champions League hopes

There’s a huge feeling of intrigue around the Champions League qualification race as the home straight of the 2023/24 season approaches.

While title hopefuls Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal look locked in the top three in the Premier League, the likes of Aston Villa, Tottenham and Manchester United are hunting fourth spot to qualify for Europe’s top club competition.

However, with the Champions League set to include more teams in its restructuring for the 2024/25 edition, there may be more than four English sides in the tournament come next season.

Here’s what the chasing pack need to know about European qualification ahead of the run-in.

The UEFA Champions League is due to expand in the 2024/25 season, increasing from 32 competing teams to 36.

Instead of a group stage, the 36 clubs will be placed into a league system, with each to play eight matches – four home and four away – against eight different sides. They are seeded based on UEFA rankings and placed into four pots, with each team facing two opponents from each pot home and away for a total of eight games.

The top eight in the new league automatically qualify for the last 16, while the clubs placed ninth to 24th compete in two-legged play-offs for a spot in the next round.

From that point on, the Champions League runs in its current format.

The expansion to the 2024/25 Champions League means there are more spots available for would-be competitors. However, those hopeful clubs will be reliant on the teams from their associations performing well in Europe in 2023/24 to boost their country’s UEFA coefficient.

Additional places in the competition will be given to the two associations with the highest 2023/24 UEFA coefficients. That rating is measured by performances in Europe, with points handed out for group-stage wins and later success in the knockout stages.

Aston Villa and Tottenham have their sights set on fourth place in the Premier League with Man Utd loitering in the background, but those three English teams need their domestic rivals to excel in the knockout stages of all three of UEFA’s continental competitions for England to be handed an additional spot.

As it stands, England are lagging behind leaders Italy and second-place Germany, with group-stage Champions League exits for Man Utd and Newcastle proving costly, but with six Premier League clubs reaching the knockout stages of UEFA competitions, England’s coefficient will rise with some positive results for the competing teams in the knockout stages.

Stats gurus Opta have crunched the numbers and their projections are positive for English teams. While Italy looked primed for an extra Champions League spot with all seven of their competing sides in the knockout stages, England aren’t far behind at all.

Italy currently have a 91% chance of finishing in the top two of UEFA’s coefficient, with England in second with 81.9%.

There’s a bit more pressure on Arsenal to perform given the early exits of Man Utd and Newcastle in the Champions League, but Germany’s credentials took a blow with none of their teams winning in the last 16 – Bayern Munich lost to Lazio and Borussia Dortmund drew with PSV Eindhoven, while RB Leipzig were beaten by Real Madrid.

* Scores correct as of 1 March 2024